October was the third month in a row in which Agile cost a typical home more than the price cap (see my previous article for more details). This is driven by gas, and gas keeps getting pricier and further away from its level when the current price cap was set.
Each quarter's cap is fixed in advance, so the gap is known before a month starts. Often, however, a particularly windy month can benefit Agile so much that it still outperforms the handicap of rising gas prices:
However, November starts with the widest gap yet: gas has averaged 7.4p over the past four weeks, against 4.2p when the cap was set. On past form, Agile will cost a typical home about £10 more than Flexible this month. The first three days of this month have been particularly terrible. A typical home paid £12 on Agile and £8 on Flexible: £4 more in three days, or £41 if extrapolated to the whole month.
There is virtually no chance that November will be windy enough to tip the balance:
This chart is updated every day on the Agile watch page.
The gap will narrow in the new year. The cap for January to March is being set from gas bought between 18 August and 17 November, which has averaged 6.6p so far. Ofgem will announce it around 25 November. Unless gas falls sharply, the price cap will become more expensive, and much of Agile's disadvantage will go.
What it means for now
- A typical home: Flexible is the safer choice while gas stays well above the cap's price.
- An electric car: Intelligent Octopus Go, whatever gas does.
- A heat pump: Cosy Octopus has beaten Agile every month since August for a typical heat-pump-heated home.