Agile watch
When wholesale gas costs more than the price cap allows for, Octopus Agile loses its edge – unless the wind blows. How windy this month would need to be, updated daily.
Flexible likely cheaper this month
Set at the start of November, when gas had cost 3.1p per kWh above the cap's price over the previous four weeks. To make up for that, Agile would need wind to supply 54 per cent of Britain's electricity, which no month since November 2023 has had.
With an electric car or a heat pump, other tariffs usually win whatever the signal: see Your home.
November so far: gas has cost 4.3p per kWh more than the price cap allows for, and wind has supplied 24 per cent of Britain's electricity.
For Agile to beat Flexible Octopus for a typical home at that gas price, wind would need to supply about 70 per cent of Britain's electricity over the month.
No month since November 2023 has been that windy: the windiest, December 2023, reached 40 per cent.
So far this month it hasn't been windy enough.
- Agile cheaper that month
- Flexible cheaper
- This month, day by day
Each dot is a month since November 2023: its gas price against the cap's, and wind's share of Britain's electricity. On the line, Agile and Flexible Octopus cost a typical home the same; above it, wind made Agile cheaper.
Why gas and wind
Agile's prices follow the wholesale market within a day. Flexible Octopus follows Ofgem's price cap, which is set from gas prices months before each quarter starts. When gas rises above the price in the cap, Agile becomes more expensive first; windy days pull its prices back down. Each extra penny of gas above the cap takes about 14 more percentage points of wind to offset.
The figures are for a typical home using 2,500 kWh per year, on Agile's prices in South Scotland. Gas prices are to 2 November, wind to 2 November.
How the signal has done, set this way at the start of each month since December 2024: Agile was cheaper in 14 of the 16 months marked “Agile likely cheaper”, four of the six marked “too close to call”, and Flexible in the one month marked “Flexible likely cheaper”. A guide, not a guarantee: a windy month can still rescue Agile, and a calm one sink it.
The months as a table
| Month | Gas vs cap | Wind | Agile's saving |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | +3.0p | 36% | –£11 |
| Sep 2026 | +2.5p | 36% | –£8 |
| Aug 2026 | +1.2p | 23% | –£4 |
| Jul 2026 | +0.5p | 23% | £5 |
| Jun 2026 | +1.0p | 27% | £3 |
| May 2026 | +1.3p | 25% | £2 |
| Apr 2026 | +1.1p | 31% | £12 |
| Mar 2026 | +1.8p | 35% | £4 |
| Feb 2026 | +0.1p | 36% | £12 |
| Jan 2026 | +0.4p | 37% | £6 |
| Dec 2025 | –0.4p | 38% | £14 |
| Nov 2025 | –0.3p | 37% | £11 |
| Oct 2025 | –0.2p | 34% | £12 |
| Sep 2025 | –0.5p | 35% | £10 |
| Aug 2025 | –0.5p | 26% | £8 |
| Jul 2025 | –0.4p | 19% | £5 |
| Jun 2025 | –1.1p | 31% | £12 |
| May 2025 | –1.3p | 26% | £13 |
| Apr 2025 | –1.2p | 22% | £9 |
| Mar 2025 | +0.2p | 26% | £3 |
| Feb 2025 | +1.0p | 31% | –£5 |
| Jan 2025 | +1.0p | 27% | –£13 |
| Dec 2024 | +1.1p | 38% | £0 |
| Nov 2024 | +1.1p | 26% | –£2 |
| Oct 2024 | +0.7p | 30% | £5 |
| Sep 2024 | +0.6p | 26% | £3 |
| Aug 2024 | +0.5p | 31% | £10 |
| Jul 2024 | +0.2p | 21% | £7 |
| Jun 2024 | +0.0p | 24% | £9 |
| May 2024 | –0.2p | 19% | £10 |
| Apr 2024 | –0.3p | 35% | £18 |
| Mar 2024 | –1.1p | 32% | £25 |
| Feb 2024 | –1.3p | 34% | £27 |
| Jan 2024 | –0.8p | 33% | £23 |
| Dec 2023 | +0.4p | 40% | £22 |
| Nov 2023 | +1.1p | 31% | £8 |
Sources: Octopus Energy; National Gas (System Average Price); Ofgem; NESO's historic generation mix (supported by National Energy System Operator open data); Renewably analysis. Which tariff suits your home over a year: Your home.